Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/09, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Atletico Mineiro1.23

Fluminense0.98

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Fluminense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWDWL

Fluminense 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDDDWWDW

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 2–4 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense1-0Atletico Mineiro
Fluminense3-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro3-2Fluminense
Atletico Mineiro2-0Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro0-2Fluminense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1561 · Fluminense 1544

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	40%	31%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fluminense: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +6’	2.25	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:19 +20’	2.19	3.21	3.43
03:16 +43’	2.21▲	3.25▲	3.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 2–0–4 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
04/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
11/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	3-2 HT 0-0	Fluminense
26/09/24 Copa Libertadores	Atletico Mineiro	2-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense
19/09/24 Copa Libertadores	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
25/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	0-2 HT 0-1	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Fluminense
Gremio	3-0 W	1-1 D
Remo	2-2 D	2-1 W
Palmeiras	2-1 W	3-2 W
EC Bahia	1-1 D	0-0 D
Vasco da Gama	1-0 W	1-0 W
Mirassol	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

WLWDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
16/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	5	1	W

Fluminense

LDDDDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
26/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
01/06	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
24/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (41%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 41%, draw 30%, Fluminense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.23 · Fluminense 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.