Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/09, 22:00

Prediction: Chapecoense vs Internacional

Team pages: Chapecoense · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Chapecoense1.22

Internacional1.32

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Chapecoense Draw Internacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLDWL

Internacional 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDDDL

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 2–4 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional2-0Chapecoense
Internacional5-2Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-2Internacional
Internacional1-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense2-0Internacional
Chapecoense2-1Internacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1429 · Internacional 1465

	Chapecoense	Draw	Internacional
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Internacional: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.2	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +6’	2.80	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 2–0–4 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-0 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
10/10/21 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	5-2 HT 4-0	Chapecoense
25/06/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 0-2	Internacional
22/09/19 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
28/04/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	2-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
18/09/18 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	2-1 HT 1-1	Internacional

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	Internacional
EC Bahia	3-3 D	2-3 L
Flamengo	0-4 L	1-1 D
Palmeiras	0-1 L	0-0 D
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	1-2 L
Remo	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapecoense

LLLLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L

Internacional

WLLLLDDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Internacional win (38%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 33%, draw 29%, Internacional 38%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Internacional?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Chapecoense 1.22 · Internacional 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Internacional?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.