Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/09, 23:30

Prediction: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

Team pages: Palmeiras · Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Palmeiras1.8

Sao Paulo0.98

1X2

55% 25% 19%

Palmeiras Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Palmeiras 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDLWD

Sao Paulo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Palmeiras 6–0 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Sao Paulo0-1Palmeiras
Palmeiras2-1Sao Paulo
Palmeiras3-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-3Palmeiras
Palmeiras1-0Sao Paulo
Palmeiras1-0Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmeiras 1594 · Sao Paulo 1466

	Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	55%	25%	19%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1594 vs 1466).
H2H favours Palmeiras: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmeiras	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	3.5 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +6’	1.67	3.70	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 6–0–0 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	0-1 HT 0-1	Palmeiras
02/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Palmeiras	2-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
24/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Palmeiras	3-1 HT 2-1	Sao Paulo
05/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-3 HT 2-0	Palmeiras
11/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
11/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmeiras	Sao Paulo
Fluminense	2-3 L	1-2 L
Atletico Mineiro	1-2 L	2-0 W
Coritiba	3-1 W	1-1 D
Chapecoense	1-0 W	0-1 L
Flamengo	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmeiras

DWWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
09/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
27/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
31/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	12	W
17/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	6	D

Sao Paulo

LDLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (55%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 55%, draw 25%, Sao Paulo 19%.

How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Palmeiras 1.8 · Sao Paulo 0.98), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.