Football · Brazil Serie A · 13/09, 02:00
Prediction: Santos vs Cruzeiro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Santos1.37
Cruzeiro1.22
1X2
Santos
Draw
Cruzeiro
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Santos
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Cruzeiro
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos
3–1–2
Cruzeiro
(6 last)
- Cruzeiro0-0Santos
- Santos3-0Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro1-2Santos
- Santos0-3Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-1Santos
- Santos4-1Cruzeiro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos 1560 · Cruzeiro 1546
| Santos | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Santos: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 3–1–2 Cruzeiro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Santos |
| 07/12/25 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 10/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 15/09/23 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Cruzeiro |
| 06/05/23 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 24/11/19 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Cruzeiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 50 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 35 | 37 |
| 8 | Atletico Mineiro | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 35 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 33 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 29 |
| 14 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 36 | 29 |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | 28 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 40 | 25 |
| 18 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 31 | 25 |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 42 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santos | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Mirassol | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Vasco da Gama | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Chapecoense | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Botafogo | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Coritiba | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 17/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos win (39%). Probabilities: Santos 39%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 32%.
How many goals are expected in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Santos 1.37 · Cruzeiro 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.