Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/09, 02:00

Prediction: Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense

Team pages: Coritiba · Athletico Paranaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Coritiba1.18

Athletico Paranaense1.18

1X2

35% 31% 35%

Coritiba Draw Athletico Paranaense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLWDWW

Athletico Paranaense 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Coritiba 2–3–1 Athletico Paranaense (6 last)

Athletico Paranaense2-0Coritiba
Athletico Paranaense0-1Coritiba
Coritiba0-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense0-1Coritiba
Coritiba0-0Athletico Paranaense
Coritiba1-1Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1533 · Athletico Paranaense 1561

	Coritiba	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
Our model	35%	31%	35%
Market	34%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Coritiba: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Athletico Paranaense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +13’	2.70	3.00	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 2–3–1 Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	2-0 HT 1-0	Coritiba
17/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense	Athletico Paranaense	0-1 HT 0-0	Coritiba
19/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
28/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletico Paranaense	0-1 HT 0-0	Coritiba
25/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense	Coritiba	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
18/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense	Coritiba	1-1 HT 1-1	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	25	10	7	8	33	33	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	25	6	7	12	27	39	25
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Athletico Paranaense
Remo	3-2 W	2-1 W
Corinthians	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bragantino	0-0 D	1-1 D
Flamengo	0-3 L	1-1 D
Santos	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

WWLLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W

Athletico Paranaense

DWWWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
30/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
24/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
18/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coritiba win (35%). Probabilities: Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Athletico Paranaense 35%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Coritiba 1.18 · Athletico Paranaense 1.18), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.