Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/09, 21:00

Prediction: Gremio vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Gremio · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Gremio1.48

Vasco da Gama1.07

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Gremio Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWLLW

Vasco da Gama 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLLWL

Head-to-head

Gremio 3–1–2 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama2-1Gremio
Gremio2-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama1-1Gremio
Gremio1-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-1Gremio
Gremio1-0Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio 1489 · Vasco da Gama 1507

	Gremio	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gremio: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +6’	2.05	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 3–1–2 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 2-1	Gremio
20/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	2-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
19/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-1 HT 0-0	Gremio
29/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
14/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 2-0	Gremio
03/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio	Vasco da Gama
Bragantino	0-1 L	0-3 L
Atletico Mineiro	0-3 L	0-1 L
Fluminense	1-1 D	0-1 L
Mirassol	1-2 L	1-1 D
Santos	3-2 W	0-3 L
EC Bahia	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio

LDWLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
08/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
26/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
18/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
30/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
24/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
17/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	4	L

Vasco da Gama

LLLLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (45%). Probabilities: Gremio 45%, draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 26%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Gremio 1.48 · Vasco da Gama 1.07), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.