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Football · Brazil Serie A · 13/09, 22:30

Prediction: Flamengo vs Corinthians

Team pages: Flamengo · Corinthians

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Flamengo1.88
Corinthians0.6
1X2
67% 22% 10%
Flamengo Draw Corinthians
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Flamengo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)
WWDDWWLWWW
Corinthians 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WWWDDWLLLL
Head-to-head
Flamengo 3–2–1 Corinthians (6 last)
  • Corinthians1-1Flamengo
  • Flamengo0-2Corinthians
  • Corinthians1-2Flamengo
  • Flamengo4-0Corinthians
  • Corinthians0-0Flamengo
  • Flamengo1-0Corinthians
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1596 · Corinthians 1501
FlamengoDrawCorinthians
Our model67%23%10%
Market68%22%11%
Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1596 vs 1501).
  • H2H favours Flamengo: 3-2-1.
  • High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

FlamengoCorinthians
Goals for / against (FT)2.3 / 0.51.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.10.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)70/20/10%10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)3.4 / 5.42.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.8 / 0.14.7 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 3–2–1 Corinthians

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DateHomeScoreAway
23/03/26
Brazil Serie A
Corinthians1-1
HT 1-1
Flamengo
01/02/26
Brazil Supercopa
Flamengo0-2
HT 0-1
Corinthians
29/09/25
Brazil Serie A
Corinthians1-2
HT 0-0
Flamengo
27/04/25
Brazil Serie A
Flamengo4-0
HT 3-0
Corinthians
20/10/24
Copa do Brasil
Corinthians0-0
HT 0-0
Flamengo
03/10/24
Copa do Brasil
Flamengo1-0
HT 1-0
Corinthians

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Flamengo 261664 512154
2 Palmeiras 261583 452153
3 Athletico Paranaense 271377 413146
4 Fluminense 261295 403245
5 EC Bahia 2611105 403243
6 Cruzeiro 261268 383742
7 Coritiba 271089 373838
8 Atletico Mineiro 251069 323036
9 Bragantino 2510510 312835
10 Sao Paulo 259610 312833
11 Vitoria 269512 253732
12 Corinthians 268810 272732
13 Santos 25889 373832
14 Botafogo 258710 374031
15 Gremio 257711 273328
16 Mirassol 267712 294028
17 Vasco da Gama 256712 274025
18 Internacional 2651011 283425
19 Remo 265813 304323
20 Chapecoense 253814 275017

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentFlamengoCorinthians
Remo 1-0 W 3-0 W
Cruzeiro 1-2 L 1-2 L
Chapecoense 4-0 W 1-2 L
Coritiba 3-0 W 1-2 L
Record vs common 3 W 0 D 1 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

WWDDWWLWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 Remo
Brazil Serie A
 0-0 1-0 94 W
03/09 Mirassol
Brazil Serie A
 2-0 2-0 92 W
30/08 Botafogo
Brazil Serie A
 1-0 3-0 52 W
23/08 Cruzeiro
Brazil Serie A
 1-0 1-2 34 L
16/08 Mirassol
Brazil Serie A
 1-0 5-1 33 W
10/08 Vitoria
Brazil Serie A
 1-0 2-0 82 W
30/07 Internacional
Brazil Serie A
 0-1 1-1 33 D
26/07 Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A
 0-0 1-1 54 D
23/07 Chapecoense
Brazil Serie A
 2-0 4-0 31 W
30/05 Coritiba
Brazil Serie A
 1-0 3-0 64 W

Corinthians

WWWDDWLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/09 Chapecoense
Brazil Serie A
 1-1 1-2 54 L
30/08 Santos
Brazil Serie A
 0-1 0-1 86 L
24/08 Coritiba
Brazil Serie A
 0-1 1-2 144 L
17/08 Cruzeiro
Brazil Serie A
 0-1 1-2 35 L
09/08 Bragantino
Brazil Serie A
 0-0 2-0 24 W
31/07 Athletico Paranaense
Brazil Serie A
 0-0 0-0 67 D
26/07 EC Bahia
Brazil Serie A
 1-1 1-1 27 D
24/07 Remo
Brazil Serie A
 3-0 3-0 32 W
30/05 Gremio
Brazil Serie A
 1-1 3-1 86 W
24/05 Atletico Mineiro
Brazil Serie A
 0-0 1-0 33 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Corinthians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (67%). Probabilities: Flamengo 67%, draw 22%, Corinthians 10%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Corinthians?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Flamengo 1.88 · Corinthians 0.6), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.