Football · Brazil Serie A · 13/09, 01:30

Prediction: Botafogo vs Bragantino

Team pages: Botafogo · Bragantino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Botafogo1.4

Bragantino1.04

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Botafogo Draw Bragantino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWDLLL

Bragantino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Botafogo 5–1 Bragantino (6 last)

Bragantino1-2Botafogo
Botafogo4-1Bragantino
Bragantino0-1Botafogo
Botafogo2-0Bragantino
Bragantino1-0Botafogo
Bragantino0-1Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1482 · Bragantino 1504

	Botafogo	Draw	Bragantino
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botafogo: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Bragantino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +2’	2.10	3.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 5–0–1 Bragantino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-2 HT 1-1	Botafogo
30/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	4-1 HT 3-1	Bragantino
07/08/25 Copa do Brasil	Bragantino	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo
30/07/25 Copa do Brasil	Botafogo	2-0 HT 2-0	Bragantino
12/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo
27/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	52
2	Flamengo	25	15	6	4	50	21	51
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	32
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	23
20	Chapecoense	24	2	8	14	25	49	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Bragantino
Athletico Paranaense	2-3 L	1-1 D
Vitoria	0-1 L	2-0 W
Fluminense	1-1 D	1-1 D
EC Bahia	1-2 L	2-3 L
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Corinthians	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo

WDLWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
24/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
30/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
23/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
17/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	3	7	W

Bragantino

WWWDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	10	3	L
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Bragantino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (44%). Probabilities: Botafogo 44%, draw 29%, Bragantino 27%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Bragantino?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Botafogo 1.4 · Bragantino 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Bragantino?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.