Prediction: Alverca vs Braga
- Braga5-0Alverca
- Alverca0-3Braga
| Alverca | Draw | Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1452 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Braga: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alverca | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.1 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 0–0–2 Braga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Alverca |
| 17/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Alverca | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Braga |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Maritimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Estrela | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Guimaraes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alverca | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Estrela | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Famalicao | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Estoril | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Arouca | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Casa Pia | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alverca (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alverca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Braga?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (50%). Probabilities: Alverca 22%, draw 28%, Braga 50%.
How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Braga?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Alverca 0.89 · Braga 1.46), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Braga?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.