Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 12/09, 19:00
Prediction: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Team pages: Casa Pia · FC Porto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Casa Pia0.78
FC Porto1.64
1X2
Casa Pia
Draw
FC Porto
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Casa Pia
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
FC Porto
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Casa Pia
1–5
FC Porto
(6 last)
- Casa Pia2-1FC Porto
- FC Porto4-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-1FC Porto
- FC Porto2-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia1-2FC Porto
- FC Porto3-1Casa Pia
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1425 vs 1609).
- H2H favours FC Porto: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.3 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.7 | 3.6 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casa Pia 1–0–5 FC Porto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 2-1 HT 2-0 | FC Porto |
| 24/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Porto | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Casa Pia |
| 12/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Porto |
| 02/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Porto | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Casa Pia |
| 21/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Porto |
| 09/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | FC Porto | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Casa Pia |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sporting | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Casa Pia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Rio Ave | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Tondela | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Santa Clara | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Porto (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casa Pia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 12 | L |
| 27/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
FC Porto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 23/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Porto win (57%). Probabilities: Casa Pia 16%, draw 27%, FC Porto 57%.
How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Casa Pia 0.78 · FC Porto 1.64), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.