Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 14/09, 19:45

Prediction: Rio Ave vs Estrela

Team pages: Rio Ave · Estrela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Rio Ave1.47

Estrela1.55

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Rio Ave Draw Estrela

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rio Ave 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLLWLL

Estrela 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDDWD

Head-to-head

Rio Ave 3–2–1 Estrela (6 last)

Rio Ave2-1Estrela
Estrela1-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave2-0Estrela
Estrela1-0Rio Ave
Estrela2-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Estrela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rio Ave 1467 · Estrela 1470

	Rio Ave	Draw	Estrela
Our model	35%	26%	38%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rio Ave: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rio Ave	Estrela
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	1 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.85
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.27 ★
2	2.50 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +7’	2.75	3.25	2.50
05:13 +17’	2.80▲	3.25	2.50
15:22 +34’	2.80	3.20▼	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:39 +11’	2.58	3.21	2.77
22:37 +61’	2.60▲	3.26▲	2.80▲
07:00 +45’	2.63▲	3.23▼	2.78▼
09:28 +22’	2.85▲	3.23	2.57▼
21:26 +55’	2.88▲	3.21▼	2.56▼
13:06 +87’	2.89▲	3.18▼	2.57▲
06:00 +10’	2.81▼	3.42▲	2.50▼
07:47 +44’	2.80▼	3.44▲	2.49▼
09:40 +58’	2.81▲	3.44	2.48▼
12:34 +12’	2.84▲	3.30▼	2.54▲
15:38 +18’	2.85▲	3.27▼	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Ave 3–2–1 Estrela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	2-1 HT 1-0	Estrela
25/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-2 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
05/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	2-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
23/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-0 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
14/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-2 HT 1-1	Rio Ave
02/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 0-0	Estrela

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	18	3	13
3	Sporting	5	4	1	0	14	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11	9	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
9	Braga	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
12	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4	6	3
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2	11	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2	7	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rio Ave	Estrela
Sporting	0-4 L	2-2 D
FC Porto	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Estrela (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rio Ave

DLDLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
17/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Estrela

LLLLDDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L
26/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	0	6	L
19/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
11/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rio Ave vs Estrela?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Estrela win (38%). Probabilities: Rio Ave 34%, draw 28%, Estrela 38%.

How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Estrela?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Rio Ave 1.47 · Estrela 1.55), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Estrela?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.