Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 14/09, 21:45

Prediction: Braga vs Estoril

Team pages: Braga · Estoril

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Braga1.64

Estoril0.76

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Braga Draw Estoril

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Braga 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDDDWW

Estoril 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Braga 2–3–1 Estoril (6 last)

Braga1-1Estoril
Estoril1-0Braga
Estoril0-2Braga
Braga2-2Estoril
Estoril0-1Braga
Braga1-1Estoril

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braga 1584 · Estoril 1428

	Braga	Draw	Estoril
Our model	57%	27%	16%
Market	59%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1584 vs 1428).
H2H favours Braga: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braga	Estoril
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 04:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44
X	3.90 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.65 ★
2	5.25 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +4’	1.57	3.90	5.25
18:12 +5’	1.50▼	4.00▲	6.00▲
21:47 +3’	1.48▼	4.10▲	6.25▲
05:30 +1’	1.50▲	4.10	6.50▲
03:41 +76’	1.44▼	4.20▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:40 +11’	1.44	4.49	6.56
22:29 +70’	1.45▲	4.56▲	6.71▲
05:35 +132’	1.45▼	4.57▲	6.74▲
09:28 +22’	1.44▼	4.61▲	6.84▲
15:39 +32’	1.45▲	4.56▼	6.72▼
21:48 +35’	1.44▼	4.61▲	6.84▲
22:39 +378’	1.44▲	4.58▼	6.83▼
13:35 +144’	1.43▼	4.65▲	6.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 2–3–1 Estoril

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	1-1 HT 1-0	Estoril
19/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	1-0 HT 1-0	Braga
19/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	0-2 HT 0-2	Braga
06/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-2 HT 1-0	Estoril
13/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	0-1 HT 0-0	Braga
27/01/24 Portugal League Cup	Braga	1-1 HT 1-1	Estoril

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	18	3	13
3	Sporting	5	4	1	0	14	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11	9	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
9	Braga	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
12	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4	6	3
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2	11	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2	7	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braga	Estoril
Alverca	2-1 W	1-1 D
Moreirense	2-2 D	0-1 L
Benfica	2-2 D	1-2 L
Famalicao	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Braga (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braga

WDWLDDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
31/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
23/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
12/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Estoril

LLLDDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
22/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
07/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
10/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
12/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braga vs Estoril?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Braga win (58%). Probabilities: Braga 58%, draw 25%, Estoril 17%.

How many goals are expected in Braga vs Estoril?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Braga 1.64 · Estoril 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Estoril?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.