Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 13/09, 19:00

Prediction: Arouca vs Santa Clara

Team pages: Arouca · Santa Clara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Arouca1.11

Santa Clara1.04

1X2

36% 31% 32%

Arouca Draw Santa Clara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Arouca 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWLWD

Santa Clara 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Arouca 3–2–1 Santa Clara (6 last)

Arouca2-2Santa Clara
Santa Clara0-0Arouca
Santa Clara2-0Arouca
Arouca1-0Santa Clara
Arouca1-0Santa Clara
Santa Clara1-2Arouca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arouca 1551 · Santa Clara 1559

	Arouca	Draw	Santa Clara
Our model	36%	32%	32%
Market	37%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arouca: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arouca	Santa Clara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 13 moves · last 05:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.68
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.07 ★

See the full journey (13)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 3.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +13’	2.63	3.10	2.70
02:46 +1’	2.70▲	3.10	2.60▼
14:25 +4’	2.70	3.10	2.70▲
04:28 +10’	2.60▼	3.10	2.70
07:01 +5’	2.63▲	3.20▲	2.75▲
15:40 +1’	2.60▼	3.20	2.80▲
21:34 +10’	2.55▼	3.20	2.80
08:33 +6’	2.60▲	3.20	2.80
13:44 +2’	2.55▼	3.20	2.80
19:45 +4’	2.55	3.20	2.88▲
23:29 +13’	2.55	3.10▼	3.00▲
04:04 +10’	2.60▲	3.10	3.00
05:13 +2’	2.60	3.10	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +14’	2.89	3.04	2.60
22:55 +6’	2.87▼	3.11▲	2.64▲
11:45 +11’	2.82▼	3.11	2.68▲
04:18 +19’	2.66▼	3.11	2.84▲
07:05 +25’	2.68▲	3.11	2.83▼
09:13 +25’	2.76▲	2.91▼	2.91▲
21:26 +18’	2.70▼	2.89▼	3.00▲
19:01 +48’	2.73▲	2.92▲	3.03▲
23:35 +7’	2.71▼	2.94▲	3.04▲
01:40 +13’	2.68▼	2.95▲	3.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arouca 3–2–1 Santa Clara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	2-2 HT 1-1	Santa Clara
21/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-0 HT 0-0	Arouca
26/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	2-0 HT 2-0	Arouca
15/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
11/02/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
16/12/22 Portugal League Cup	Santa Clara	1-2 HT 0-1	Arouca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	18	3	13
3	Sporting	5	4	1	0	14	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11	9	9
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
8	Braga	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
9	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
10	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
11	Academico Viseu	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
12	Guimaraes	5	1	1	3	3	5	4
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4	6	3
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2	11	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2	7	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arouca	Santa Clara
FC Porto	0-2 L	0-1 L
Alverca	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Clara (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arouca

WLDWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
24/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W

Santa Clara

DWDWLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
29/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
26/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Santa Clara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arouca win (36%). Probabilities: Arouca 36%, draw 31%, Santa Clara 32%.

How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Santa Clara?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Arouca 1.11 · Santa Clara 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.