Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

Team pages: Guimaraes · Casa Pia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Guimaraes1.63

Casa Pia0.72

1X2

59% 26% 16%

Guimaraes Draw Casa Pia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guimaraes 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLLLW

Casa Pia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Guimaraes 1–3–2 Casa Pia (6 last)

Guimaraes0-1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-0Guimaraes
Guimaraes1-0Casa Pia
Casa Pia1-1Guimaraes
Guimaraes0-2Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-0Guimaraes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guimaraes 1490 · Casa Pia 1408

	Guimaraes	Draw	Casa Pia
Our model	58%	27%	15%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guimaraes (rating 1490 vs 1408).
H2H favours Casa Pia: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.05

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:39 +15’	1.57	3.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guimaraes 1–3–2 Casa Pia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	0-1 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
28/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
01/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	1-0 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
28/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-1 HT 1-0	Guimaraes
24/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	0-2 HT 0-2	Casa Pia
23/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
6	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
12	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
13	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
14	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guimaraes	Casa Pia
Rio Ave	2-0 W	1-1 D
Gil Vicente	1-0 W	0-2 L
Tondela	5-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guimaraes (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guimaraes

WDWWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	2-3	1	8	L
08/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
11/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-5	7	3	L
25/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	8	W
18/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	5-0	3	2	W

Casa Pia

DLLLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	7	12	L
27/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guimaraes win (59%). Probabilities: Guimaraes 59%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 16%.

How many goals are expected in Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Guimaraes 1.63 · Casa Pia 0.72), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.