Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 06/09, 09:00

Prediction: South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd

Team pages: South Melbourne · Heidelberg Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

South Melbourne1.23

Heidelberg Utd1.51

1X2

31% 26% 43%

South Melbourne Draw Heidelberg Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Heidelberg Utd 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

South Melbourne 2–1–3 Heidelberg Utd (6 last)

South Melbourne1-2Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd4-0South Melbourne
South Melbourne1-0Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd1-2South Melbourne
Heidelberg Utd1-1South Melbourne
South Melbourne0-3Heidelberg Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1560 · Heidelberg Utd 1493

	South Melbourne	Draw	Heidelberg Utd
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (rating 1560 vs 1493).
H2H favours Heidelberg Utd: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne	Heidelberg Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.1	3.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +6’	2.60	3.50	2.25
21:38 +2’	2.88▲	3.60▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 2–1–3 Heidelberg Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	1-2 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd
08/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	4-0 HT 3-0	South Melbourne
29/11/25 Australia Championship	South Melbourne	1-0 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd
09/08/25 Australia Victoria Cup	Heidelberg Utd	1-2 HT 1-0	South Melbourne
26/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	South Melbourne
13/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-3 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	56	24	54
2	Hume City	26	15	4	7	51	36	49
3	Avondale	26	15	2	9	65	34	47
4	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	41	19	42
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	39	36	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	26	11	7	8	42	34	40
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	26	9	11	6	35	34	38
8	St Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	36	43	34
9	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	35	31	33
10	Melbourne City FC 2	26	8	6	12	42	42	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	28	42	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	27	51	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	23	52	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	23	65	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne	Heidelberg Utd
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Melbourne City FC 2	3-0 W	2-2 D
St Albans Saints	2-0 W	1-1 D
Oakleigh Cannons	2-1 W	0-1 L
Preston Lions	0-0 D	0-1 L
Bentleigh Greens	5-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Melbourne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
23/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
15/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
02/08	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
24/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W

Heidelberg Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
23/08	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	0	W
15/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	4-5	11	3	L
01/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
24/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
18/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
11/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
03/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
20/06	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heidelberg Utd win (43%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 31%, draw 26%, Heidelberg Utd 43%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model expects 2.74 goals (South Melbourne 1.23 · Heidelberg Utd 1.51), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.