Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: Preston Lions vs Altona Magic

Team pages: Preston Lions · Altona Magic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Preston Lions1.64

Altona Magic0.87

1X2

55% 25% 19%

Preston Lions Draw Altona Magic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDWWD

Altona Magic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDWDLL

Head-to-head

Preston Lions 3–1 Altona Magic (4 last)

Altona Magic1-0Preston Lions
Altona Magic0-2Preston Lions
Preston Lions1-0Altona Magic
Altona Magic0-2Preston Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1607 · Altona Magic 1499

	Preston Lions	Draw	Altona Magic
Our model	55%	27%	19%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1607 vs 1499).
H2H favours Preston Lions: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions	Altona Magic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +12’	1.60	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions 3–0–1 Altona Magic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	1-0 HT 1-0	Preston Lions
31/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	0-2 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
21/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	1-0 HT 1-0	Altona Magic
09/02/18 Club Friendly List	Altona Magic	0-2	Preston Lions

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	25	16	6	3	54	21	54
2	Hume City	25	15	4	6	51	34	49
3	Avondale	25	14	2	9	63	34	44
4	Preston Lions	25	15	5	5	40	18	41
5	South Melbourne	25	13	2	10	39	35	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	25	10	7	8	40	34	37
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	25	8	11	6	34	34	35
8	St Albans Saints	25	8	7	10	30	43	31
9	Dandenong City	25	9	7	9	32	29	30
10	Melbourne City FC 2	25	8	6	11	41	40	30
11	Altona Magic	25	7	6	12	27	41	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	25	6	6	13	27	49	24
13	Green Gully	25	3	6	16	21	51	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	25	4	3	18	23	59	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions	Altona Magic
Dandenong City	0-0 D	0-2 L
Melbourne City FC 2	4-0 W	0-3 L
Dandenong Thunder	3-0 W	2-0 W
Green Gully	2-2 D	3-1 W
Bentleigh Greens	1-0 W	1-0 W
South Melbourne	0-0 D	3-2 W
Avondale	3-2 W	0-2 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Heidelberg Utd	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston Lions

WWWWDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
19/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
16/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
31/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-2	5	0	D
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Altona Magic

WLWLWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
14/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
01/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
10/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
04/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
26/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
21/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
07/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	3-2	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Altona Magic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions win (55%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 55%, draw 25%, Altona Magic 19%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Altona Magic?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Preston Lions 1.64 · Altona Magic 0.87), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Altona Magic?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.