Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: Avondale vs Hume City

Team pages: Avondale · Hume City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Avondale2.03

Hume City1.68

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Avondale Draw Hume City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Avondale 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDWWLW

Hume City 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Avondale 5–1 Hume City (6 last)

Hume City3-0Avondale
Hume City1-2Avondale
Avondale2-0Hume City
Avondale5-0Hume City
Hume City1-2Avondale
Hume City0-1Avondale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avondale 1508 · Hume City 1550

	Avondale	Draw	Hume City
Our model	46%	23%	32%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hume City (rating 1508 vs 1550).
H2H favours Avondale: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avondale	Hume City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +1’	2.00	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale 5–0–1 Hume City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	3-0 HT 1-0	Avondale
04/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	1-2 HT 1-2	Avondale
29/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	2-0 HT 1-0	Hume City
15/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	5-0 HT 2-0	Hume City
09/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	1-2 HT 0-1	Avondale
03/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	Hume City	0-1 HT 0-1	Avondale

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	25	16	6	3	54	21	54
2	Hume City	25	15	4	6	51	34	49
3	Avondale	25	14	2	9	63	34	44
4	Preston Lions	25	15	5	5	40	18	41
5	South Melbourne	25	13	2	10	39	35	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	25	10	7	8	40	34	37
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	25	8	11	6	34	34	35
8	St Albans Saints	25	8	7	10	30	43	31
9	Dandenong City	25	9	7	9	32	29	30
10	Melbourne City FC 2	25	8	6	11	41	40	30
11	Altona Magic	25	7	6	12	27	41	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	25	6	6	13	27	49	24
13	Green Gully	25	3	6	16	21	51	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	25	4	3	18	23	59	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avondale	Hume City
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-3 L	3-2 W
Heidelberg Utd	2-1 W	5-4 W
Melbourne City FC 2	3-2 W	1-0 W
St Albans Saints	1-1 D	2-3 L
Oakleigh Cannons	0-2 L	0-1 L
Preston Lions	2-3 L	1-2 L
Dandenong City	1-3 L	0-0 D
Dandenong Thunder	11-0 W	3-1 W
Green Gully	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avondale

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
01/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	3-2	8	5	W
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W
05/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Hume City

WWWDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	5-4	5	3	W
01/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
24/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	2-3	2	5	L
18/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
10/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
04/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
20/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
05/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avondale vs Hume City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale win (45%). Probabilities: Avondale 45%, draw 24%, Hume City 31%.

How many goals are expected in Avondale vs Hume City?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Avondale 2.03 · Hume City 1.68), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Avondale vs Hume City?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.