Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 05/09, 06:00

Prediction: Avondale vs Preston Lions

Team pages: Avondale · Preston Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Avondale1.59

Preston Lions1.39

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Avondale Draw Preston Lions

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Avondale 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWWLWW

Preston Lions 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWWDD

Head-to-head

Avondale 1–3–2 Preston Lions (6 last)

Avondale2-3Preston Lions
Preston Lions2-1Avondale
Avondale1-1Preston Lions
Preston Lions0-0Avondale
Preston Lions1-1Avondale
Avondale3-1Preston Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avondale 1517 · Preston Lions 1587

	Avondale	Draw	Preston Lions
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1517 vs 1587).
H2H favours Preston Lions: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avondale	Preston Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.7	3.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:10 +4’	1.91	3.60	3.20
20:21 +24’	1.90▼	3.60	3.25▲
22:36 +13’	2.15▲	3.50▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale 1–3–2 Preston Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	2-3 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
20/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	2-1 HT 0-0	Avondale
15/11/25 Australia Championship	Avondale	1-1 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
24/10/25 Australia Championship	Preston Lions	0-0 HT 0-0	Avondale
22/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	1-1 HT 1-0	Avondale
15/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	3-1 HT 1-0	Preston Lions

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	56	24	54
2	Hume City	26	15	4	7	51	36	49
3	Avondale	26	15	2	9	65	34	47
4	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	41	19	42
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	39	36	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	26	11	7	8	42	34	40
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	26	9	11	6	35	34	38
8	St Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	36	43	34
9	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	35	31	33
10	Melbourne City FC 2	26	8	6	12	42	42	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	28	42	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	27	51	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	23	52	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	23	65	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avondale	Preston Lions
Hume City	2-0 W	2-1 W
Altona Magic	2-0 W	1-1 D
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-3 L	2-0 W
Melbourne City FC 2	3-2 W	4-0 W
Dandenong City	1-3 L	0-0 D
Dandenong Thunder	11-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avondale

WLLLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
22/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
01/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	3-2	8	5	W
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W

Preston Lions

WWWDWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
19/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
16/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
31/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-2	5	0	D
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avondale vs Preston Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale win (42%). Probabilities: Avondale 42%, draw 26%, Preston Lions 32%.

How many goals are expected in Avondale vs Preston Lions?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Avondale 1.59 · Preston Lions 1.39), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Avondale vs Preston Lions?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.