Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 12/09, 10:15

Prediction: Hume City vs Avondale

Team pages: Hume City · Avondale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Hume City1.6

Avondale1.67

1X2

36% 26% 39%

Hume City Draw Avondale

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hume City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWWWL

Avondale 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Hume City 1–5 Avondale (6 last)

Avondale2-0Hume City
Hume City3-0Avondale
Hume City1-2Avondale
Avondale2-0Hume City
Avondale5-0Hume City
Hume City1-2Avondale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hume City 1520 · Avondale 1518

	Hume City	Draw	Avondale
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	35%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Avondale: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hume City	Avondale
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	1.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 09:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.68 ★
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.51
2	2.30 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.38

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:57 +4’	2.50	3.60	2.30
09:39 +3’	2.80▲	3.60	2.10▼
12:40 +14’	2.63▼	3.60	2.20▲
14:43 +1’	2.45▼	3.50▼	2.35▲
20:10 +2’	2.63▲	3.60▲	2.20▼
02:10 +7’	2.35▼	3.60	2.50▲
17:36 +1’	2.45▲	3.50▼	2.45▼
09:33 +8’	2.55▲	3.40▼	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +17’	2.93	3.80	2.05
10:59	2.46▼	3.70▼	2.41▲
00:02 +7’	2.42▼	3.69▼	2.45▲
10:16 +14’	2.35▼	3.72▲	2.52▲
23:04 +132’	2.41▲	3.72	2.45▼
09:38 +3’	2.68▲	3.51▼	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hume City 1–0–5 Avondale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	2-0 HT 1-0	Hume City
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	3-0 HT 1-0	Avondale
04/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	1-2 HT 1-2	Avondale
29/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	2-0 HT 1-0	Hume City
15/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	5-0 HT 2-0	Hume City
09/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	1-2 HT 0-1	Avondale

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	56	24	54
2	Hume City	26	15	4	7	51	36	49
3	Avondale	26	15	2	9	65	34	47
4	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	41	19	42
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	39	36	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	26	11	7	8	42	34	40
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	26	9	11	6	35	34	38
8	St Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	36	43	34
9	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	35	31	33
10	Melbourne City FC 2	26	8	6	12	42	42	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	28	42	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	27	51	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	23	52	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	23	65	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hume City	Avondale
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	3-2 W	2-3 L
Heidelberg Utd	5-4 W	2-1 W
Melbourne City FC 2	1-0 W	3-2 W
St Albans Saints	2-3 L	1-1 D
Oakleigh Cannons	0-1 L	0-2 L
Preston Lions	1-2 L	2-0 W
Dandenong City	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hume City (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hume City

WWDLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
22/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	5-4	5	3	W
01/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
24/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	2-3	2	5	L
18/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
10/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
04/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
20/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	3-2	6	4	W

Avondale

LLLDWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
22/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
01/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	3-2	8	5	W
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hume City vs Avondale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale win (39%). Probabilities: Hume City 36%, draw 26%, Avondale 39%.

How many goals are expected in Hume City vs Avondale?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Hume City 1.6 · Avondale 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hume City vs Avondale?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.