Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 05/09, 08:00

Prediction: Bulleen Lions (W) vs South Melbourne (W)

Team pages: Bulleen Lions (W) · South Melbourne (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Bulleen Lions (W)1.43

South Melbourne (W)1.28

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Bulleen Lions (W) Draw South Melbourne (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bulleen Lions (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWLWWL

South Melbourne (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLWW

Head-to-head

Bulleen Lions (W) 1–3–2 South Melbourne (W) (6 last)

South Melbourne (W)1-2Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)1-2South Melbourne (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)3-3South Melbourne (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)2-3South Melbourne (W)
South Melbourne (W)2-2Bulleen Lions (W)
South Melbourne (W)1-1Bulleen Lions (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bulleen Lions (W) 1520 · South Melbourne (W) 1508

	Bulleen Lions (W)	Draw	South Melbourne (W)
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bulleen Lions (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	1.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 02:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.50 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.21
2	3.00 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +18’	2.00	3.50	3.00
04:38 +3’	2.15▲	3.40▼	2.75▼
22:05 +12’	2.45▲	3.30▼	2.45▼
23:21 +7’	2.50▲	3.20▼	2.50▲
02:19 +8’	2.25▼	3.20	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:17	2.58	3.33	2.29
23:28	2.58	3.27▼	2.32▲
00:14 +1’	2.52▼	3.27	2.37▲
02:27 +1’	2.34▼	3.27	2.56▲
05:18	2.35▲	3.21▼	2.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bulleen Lions (W) 1–3–2 South Melbourne (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	South Melbourne (W)
16/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	3-3 HT 0-3	South Melbourne (W)
16/07/25 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	South Melbourne (W)
18/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
30/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	South Melbourne (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	26	19	3	4	67	27	60
2	Essendon Royals (W)	26	18	2	6	77	31	56
3	Avondale FC (W)	26	16	4	6	65	27	52
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	26	16	4	6	59	28	52
5	South Melbourne (W)	26	13	6	7	49	25	45
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	26	14	3	9	53	40	45
7	Alamein FC (W)	26	13	3	10	34	27	42
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	26	11	2	13	48	54	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	26	9	5	12	38	48	32
10	Preston Lions (W)	26	8	6	12	31	47	30
11	Keilor Park (W)	26	7	6	13	25	45	27
12	Spring Hills FC (W)	26	8	2	16	30	46	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	26	3	3	20	22	81	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	26	2	1	23	22	94	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bulleen Lions (W)	South Melbourne (W)
Alamein FC (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Spring Hills FC (W)	3-2 W	1-0 W
Boroondara Eagles (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Box Hill (W)	2-3 L	2-2 D
Essendon Royals (W)	2-1 W	3-1 W
Melbourne City NPL (W)	5-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bulleen Lions (W)

WWWDDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
22/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	3-2	5	1	W
16/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
08/08	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
25/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
18/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
03/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
27/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
20/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	5-0	7	1	W

South Melbourne (W)

DDLWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	5	0	W
23/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
15/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
08/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
25/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
18/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bulleen Lions (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bulleen Lions (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Bulleen Lions (W) 40%, draw 28%, South Melbourne (W) 32%.

How many goals are expected in Bulleen Lions (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Bulleen Lions (W) 1.43 · South Melbourne (W) 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bulleen Lions (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.