Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 11/09, 11:30

Prediction: Box Hill (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)

Team pages: Box Hill (W) · Bulleen Lions (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Box Hill (W)1.98

Bulleen Lions (W)1.17

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Box Hill (W) Draw Bulleen Lions (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Box Hill (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDWW

Bulleen Lions (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Box Hill (W) 2–3–1 Bulleen Lions (W) (6 last)

Bulleen Lions (W)2-3Box Hill (W)
Box Hill (W)2-2Bulleen Lions (W)
Box Hill (W)2-2Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)1-3Box Hill (W)
Box Hill (W)1-1Bulleen Lions (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)2-1Box Hill (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Box Hill (W) 1608 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1521

	Box Hill (W)	Draw	Bulleen Lions (W)
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1608 vs 1521).
H2H favours Box Hill (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Box Hill (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:05 +7’	1.73	3.80	3.60
21:46 +3’	1.50▼	4.20▲	4.75▲
00:06 +3’	1.60▲	4.00▼	4.10▼
08:02 +2’	1.75▲	3.80▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +72’	1.62	3.68	4.23
03:01 +48’	1.67▲	3.62▼	3.98▼
05:29 +18’	1.81▲	3.45▼	3.50▼
07:54 +10’	1.85▲	3.75▲	3.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill (W) 2–3–1 Bulleen Lions (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Box Hill (W)
30/06/26 Australia Victoria Cup Women	Box Hill (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Bulleen Lions (W)
06/09/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Box Hill (W)
13/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Bulleen Lions (W)
16/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Bulleen Lions (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Box Hill (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	26	19	3	4	67	27	60
2	Essendon Royals (W)	26	18	2	6	77	31	56
3	Avondale FC (W)	26	16	4	6	65	27	52
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	26	16	4	6	59	28	52
5	South Melbourne (W)	26	13	6	7	49	25	45
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	26	14	3	9	53	40	45
7	Alamein FC (W)	26	13	3	10	34	27	42
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	26	11	2	13	48	54	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	26	9	5	12	38	48	32
10	Preston Lions (W)	26	8	6	12	31	47	30
11	Keilor Park (W)	26	7	6	13	25	45	27
12	Spring Hills FC (W)	26	8	2	16	30	46	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	26	3	3	20	22	81	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	26	2	1	23	22	94	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Box Hill (W)	Bulleen Lions (W)
Alamein FC (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	3-2 W
Boroondara Eagles (W)	3-1 W	1-0 W
South Melbourne (W)	2-2 D	1-1 D
Heidelberg United (W)	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Box Hill (W)

WDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
14/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W

Bulleen Lions (W)

WWDDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
30/08	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
22/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	3-2	5	1	W
16/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
08/08	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
25/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
18/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
10/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
03/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
27/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Box Hill (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Box Hill (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Box Hill (W) 56%, draw 23%, Bulleen Lions (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in Box Hill (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Box Hill (W) 1.98 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1.17), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Box Hill (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.