Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 12/09, 07:00
Prediction: Essendon Royals (W) vs Avondale FC (W)
Team pages: Essendon Royals (W) · Avondale FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Essendon Royals (W)1.87
Avondale FC (W)2.08
1X2
Essendon Royals (W)
Draw
Avondale FC (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Essendon Royals (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Avondale FC (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Essendon Royals (W)
1–1
Avondale FC (W)
(2 last)
- Avondale FC (W)4-2Essendon Royals (W)
- Essendon Royals (W)3-1Avondale FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Essendon Royals (W) 1587 · Avondale FC (W) 1601
| Essendon Royals (W) | Draw | Avondale FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 23% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Essendon Royals (W) | Avondale FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.4 | 3.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.7 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals (W) 1–0–1 Avondale FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Avondale FC (W) | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Essendon Royals (W) |
| 21/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Avondale FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Box Hill (W) | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 67 | 27 | 60 |
| 2 | Essendon Royals (W) | 26 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 77 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Avondale FC (W) | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | South Melbourne (W) | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 25 | 45 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 53 | 40 | 45 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 27 | 42 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 26 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 54 | 35 |
| 9 | Heidelberg United (W) | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 48 | 32 |
| 10 | Preston Lions (W) | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 47 | 30 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 45 | 27 |
| 12 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 46 | 26 |
| 13 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 26 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 22 | 81 | 12 |
| 14 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 26 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 22 | 94 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Essendon Royals (W) | Avondale FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| South Melbourne (W) | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Preston Lions (W) | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 5-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | 3-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 22/08 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 14/08 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-2 | 5-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Avondale FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 5-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 3-3 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 14/08 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 6-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale FC (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals (W) 34%, draw 23%, Avondale FC (W) 43%.
How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Essendon Royals (W) 1.87 · Avondale FC (W) 2.08), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Essendon Royals (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.