Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Team pages: Preston Lions (W) · Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Preston Lions (W)1.53

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)1.69

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Preston Lions (W) Draw Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Preston Lions (W) 0–1 Melbourne Victory NPL (W) (1 last)

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)2-0Preston Lions (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions (W) 1464 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1475

	Preston Lions (W)	Draw	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.8 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 4.2	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:50 +33’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions (W) 0–0–1 Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Preston Lions (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	25	18	3	4	66	27	57
2	Essendon Royals (W)	25	18	2	5	76	28	56
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	25	16	4	5	59	26	52
4	Avondale FC (W)	25	15	4	6	60	26	49
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	25	14	2	9	51	38	44
6	South Melbourne (W)	25	12	6	7	46	24	42
7	Alamein FC (W)	25	12	3	10	32	27	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	25	11	2	12	47	52	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	25	8	5	12	37	48	29
10	Preston Lions (W)	25	7	6	12	29	46	27
11	Spring Hills FC (W)	25	8	2	15	29	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	25	7	5	13	23	43	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	25	3	3	19	22	80	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	25	2	1	22	22	93	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Bentleigh Greens (W)	0-0 D	1-3 L
Essendon Royals (W)	1-5 L	0-6 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	2-0 W	6-1 W
Keilor Park (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Avondale FC (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	2-1 W	2-4 L
Alamein FC (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
Box Hill (W)	0-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (W) (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston Lions (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
14/08	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-5	3	2	L
07/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	12	2	W
24/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
14/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
10/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
04/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
26/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
07/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	3	2	L

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
14/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
09/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
25/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-6	5	0	L
19/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-4	3	0	L
04/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-5	4	0	L
27/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
20/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory NPL (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Preston Lions (W) 34%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 41%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Preston Lions (W) 1.53 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.69), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.