Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Boroondara Eagles (W) vs Keilor Park (W)

Team pages: Boroondara Eagles (W) · Keilor Park (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Boroondara Eagles (W)2.19

Keilor Park (W)0.99

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Boroondara Eagles (W) Draw Keilor Park (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Boroondara Eagles (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Keilor Park (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Boroondara Eagles (W) 1–0 Keilor Park (W) (1 last)

Keilor Park (W)2-5Boroondara Eagles (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boroondara Eagles (W) 1527 · Keilor Park (W) 1457

	Boroondara Eagles (W)	Draw	Keilor Park (W)
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	65%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boroondara Eagles (W) (rating 1527 vs 1457).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boroondara Eagles (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.6 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.38▼	Bet365 1.38
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:20 +20’	1.40	4.50	5.50
02:41 +7’	1.33▼	4.75▲	6.50▲
06:01 +2’	1.38▲	4.75	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boroondara Eagles (W) 1–0–0 Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Keilor Park (W)	2-5 HT 1-2	Boroondara Eagles (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	25	18	3	4	66	27	57
2	Essendon Royals (W)	25	18	2	5	76	28	56
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	25	16	4	5	59	26	52
4	Avondale FC (W)	25	15	4	6	60	26	49
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	25	14	2	9	51	38	44
6	South Melbourne (W)	25	12	6	7	46	24	42
7	Alamein FC (W)	25	12	3	10	32	27	39
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	25	11	2	12	47	52	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	25	8	5	12	37	48	29
10	Preston Lions (W)	25	7	6	12	29	46	27
11	Spring Hills FC (W)	25	8	2	15	29	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	25	7	5	13	23	43	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	25	3	3	19	22	80	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	25	2	1	22	22	93	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boroondara Eagles (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Avondale FC (W)	3-3 D	0-2 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	4-2 W	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Box Hill (W)	1-3 L	0-3 L
South Melbourne (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Heidelberg United (W)	3-1 W	0-2 L
Bentleigh Greens (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Boroondara Eagles (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boroondara Eagles (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	3-3	3	0	D
16/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
08/08	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
25/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-1	7	0	W
19/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	4-2	4	0	W
14/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	7	0	L
10/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-3	2	1	L
05/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
27/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
05/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	0	0	L
15/08	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
24/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
11/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
04/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-1	9	0	W
27/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
20/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boroondara Eagles (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Boroondara Eagles (W) 64%, draw 20%, Keilor Park (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Boroondara Eagles (W) 2.19 · Keilor Park (W) 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.