Football · Spain La Liga · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Team pages: Real Madrid · Rayo Vallecano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Real Madrid2.35

Rayo Vallecano0.62

1X2

76% 16% 8%

Real Madrid Draw Rayo Vallecano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWWW

Rayo Vallecano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWWLD

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 2–4–0 Rayo Vallecano (6 last)

Real Madrid2-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano0-0Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano3-3Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano1-1Real Madrid
Real Madrid0-0Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1644 · Rayo Vallecano 1485

	Real Madrid	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Our model	75%	17%	7%
Market	76%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1644 vs 1485).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	Rayo Vallecano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.02

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.21
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 7.00 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Pinn 11.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +15’	1.20	6.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +1’	1.21	7.00	11.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 2–4–0 Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-1 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
09/11/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
09/03/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-1 HT 2-1	Rayo Vallecano
14/12/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	3-3 HT 2-2	Real Madrid
18/02/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Madrid
05/11/23 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	0-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10	2	9
2	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
3	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Deportivo A Coruna	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
8	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
12	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
13	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad	4-1 W	3-3 D
Espanyol	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sevilla	1-0 W	1-2 L
CD Alaves	2-1 W	1-1 D
Girona	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

DWDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
03/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
24/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/04	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
10/04	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D

Rayo Vallecano

LWDWDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/05	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
03/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
26/04	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	6	8	D
23/04	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
12/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (76%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 76%, draw 16%, Rayo Vallecano 8%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Real Madrid 2.35 · Rayo Vallecano 0.62), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.