Football · Spain La Liga · 13/09, 13:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Elche

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · Elche

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Athletic Bilbao2.06

Elche1.05

1X2

59% 24% 17%

Athletic Bilbao Draw Elche

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Elche 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDDLL

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao 3–2–1 Elche (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao2-1Elche
Elche0-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-1Elche
Elche1-4Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao2-1Elche
Elche0-0Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao 1549 · Elche 1491

	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Elche
Our model	60%	23%	18%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (rating 1549 vs 1491).
H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao	Elche
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.6	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:38 +16’	1.57	3.80	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 3–2–1 Elche

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-1 HT 0-0	Elche
19/10/25 Spain La Liga	Elche	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
28/05/23 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	Elche
11/09/22 Spain La Liga	Elche	1-4 HT 0-4	Athletic Bilbao
03/04/22 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-1 HT 1-0	Elche
16/08/21 Spain La Liga	Elche	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10	2	9
2	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
3	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Deportivo A Coruna	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
8	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
12	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
13	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao	Elche
Celta Vigo	2-0 W	1-3 L
Barcelona	0-2 L	0-5 L
CD Alaves	4-2 W	1-1 D
Atletico Madrid	2-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
25/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-0	2-3	4	0	L
21/04	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Elche

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-3	2-3	10	3	L
23/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
17/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
09/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	9	D
03/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
26/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
22/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	13	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs Elche?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao win (59%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 59%, draw 24%, Elche 17%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs Elche?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Athletic Bilbao 2.06 · Elche 1.05), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Elche?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.