Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/09, 17:45

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Diyala FC

Team pages: Erbil SC · Diyala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Erbil SC1.62

Diyala FC0.98

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Erbil SC Draw Diyala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWWD

Diyala FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLDDL

Head-to-head

Erbil SC 2–1–1 Diyala FC (4 last)

Erbil SC2-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-1Erbil SC
Diyala FC1-0Erbil SC
Erbil SC2-1Diyala FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1591 · Diyala FC 1458

	Erbil SC	Draw	Diyala FC
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1591 vs 1458).
H2H favours Erbil SC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Diyala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.77 ★
X	3.75 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.48
2	6.00 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:51 +15’	1.48	3.75	6.00
06:45 +18’	1.57▲	3.60▼	5.00▼
08:59 +3’	1.45▼	3.75▲	6.00▲
10:03 +2’	1.73▲	3.40▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +51’	1.57	3.55	4.82
09:51 +14’	1.91▲	3.32▼	3.31▼
10:27 +38’	1.86▼	3.37▲	3.42▲
11:45 +27’	1.78▼	3.47▲	3.63▲
14:40 +11’	1.77▼	3.48▲	3.62▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Erbil SC 2–1–1 Diyala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Diyala FC
22/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Erbil SC
12/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
20/09/24 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Diyala FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	6	3	3	0	12	3	12
2	Erbil SC	5	3	2	0	6	1	11
3	Al Karma	5	3	2	0	8	4	11
4	Al Naft SC	5	2	3	0	6	1	9
5	Newroz SC	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
6	Mosul FC	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
7	Al Shorta SC	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
8	Al Jolan SC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
9	Duhok	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	6	1	4	1	10	10	7
11	Al Minaa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
12	Diyala FC	5	1	2	2	9	10	5
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
14	Al Gharraf	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
15	Zakho	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	Al Talaba	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
19	Naft Maysan	5	0	3	2	1	7	3
20	Al Karkh	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Diyala FC
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Amanat Baghdad	3-1 W	1-4 L
Zakho	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

WLWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
16/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	3-1	4-1	6	5	W

Diyala FC

WLLLWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
11/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Diyala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (51%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 51%, draw 27%, Diyala FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Diyala FC?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Erbil SC 1.62 · Diyala FC 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Diyala FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.