Football · Iraq Stars League · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba

Team pages: Naft Maysan · Al Talaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Naft Maysan1.06

Al Talaba1.33

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Naft Maysan Draw Al Talaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Naft Maysan 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLDLD

Al Talaba 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDDDW

Head-to-head

Naft Maysan 3–1–2 Al Talaba (6 last)

Naft Maysan0-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba2-1Naft Maysan
Al Talaba1-1Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-0Al Talaba
Al Talaba0-4Naft Maysan
Al Talaba0-1Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naft Maysan 1474 · Al Talaba 1511

	Naft Maysan	Draw	Al Talaba
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Naft Maysan: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naft Maysan	Al Talaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
19:49 +11’	3.10	3.10	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naft Maysan 3–1–2 Al Talaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
31/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	2-1 HT 1-0	Naft Maysan
28/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-1 HT 1-0	Naft Maysan
08/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Talaba
04/11/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	0-4 HT 0-1	Naft Maysan
25/10/22 Iraq League	Al Talaba	0-1 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
2	Al Karma	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Erbil SC	6	4	2	0	8	1	14
4	Al Shorta SC	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
5	Al Naft SC	6	2	3	1	6	4	9
6	Al Talaba	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
7	Al Jolan SC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
8	Newroz SC	6	2	2	2	8	5	8
9	Duhok	6	1	5	0	8	7	8
10	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
11	Mosul FC	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Al Minaa	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
15	Zakho	6	1	3	2	5	9	6
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
18	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
19	Naft Maysan	6	0	4	2	2	8	4
20	Al Karkh	6	0	1	5	4	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naft Maysan	Al Talaba
Al Minaa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	1-2 L
Al Naft SC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Naft Maysan (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naft Maysan

WWLWDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
04/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	5-2	10	3	W

Al Talaba

DLDDDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
11/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Talaba win (42%). Probabilities: Naft Maysan 29%, draw 29%, Al Talaba 42%.

How many goals are expected in Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Naft Maysan 1.06 · Al Talaba 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.