Football · Iraq Stars League · 17/09, 17:45

Prediction: Al Karkh vs Naft Maysan

Team pages: Al Karkh · Naft Maysan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Al Karkh1.37

Naft Maysan1.22

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Al Karkh Draw Naft Maysan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karkh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLDLLW

Naft Maysan 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLDLDW

Head-to-head

Al Karkh 2–2–2 Naft Maysan (6 last)

Al Karkh1-1Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-2Al Karkh
Naft Maysan1-2Al Karkh
Al Karkh0-2Naft Maysan
Al Karkh0-0Naft Maysan
Al Karkh1-2Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karkh 1479 · Naft Maysan 1493

	Al Karkh	Draw	Naft Maysan
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	38%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karkh	Naft Maysan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.90

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +24’	2.35	2.90	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karkh 2–2–2 Naft Maysan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan
27/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-2 HT 0-1	Al Karkh
02/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Karkh
25/10/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	0-2 HT 0-1	Naft Maysan
11/02/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	0-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
29/11/22 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-2 HT 0-1	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
3	Erbil SC	7	4	2	1	9	3	14
4	Al Naft SC	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
5	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
6	Newroz SC	7	3	2	2	10	5	11
7	Al Talaba	7	2	3	2	8	9	9
8	Al Jolan SC	7	2	3	2	6	7	9
9	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
10	Duhok	7	1	5	1	10	10	8
11	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Mosul FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
13	Al Minaa	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Naft Maysan	7	1	4	2	4	8	7
18	Karbalaa FC	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
19	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
20	Al Karkh	7	1	1	5	7	12	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karkh	Naft Maysan
Al Talaba	2-3 L	2-0 W
Al Jolan SC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Al Najaf	5-2 W	2-1 W
Al Gharraf	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Naft Maysan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karkh

DWLDLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
15/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	6	8	D

Naft Maysan

WLWDDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
04/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karkh vs Naft Maysan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karkh win (39%). Probabilities: Al Karkh 39%, draw 30%, Naft Maysan 31%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karkh vs Naft Maysan?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Al Karkh 1.37 · Naft Maysan 1.22), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karkh vs Naft Maysan?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.