Football · Iraq Stars League · 17/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Zawra'a vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Al Zawra'a · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Al Zawra'a1.62

Al Gharraf0.63

1X2

61% 25% 14%

Al Zawra'a Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Zawra'a 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWDWW

Al Gharraf 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLLDLL

Head-to-head

Al Zawra'a 1–1–0 Al Gharraf (2 last)

Al Gharraf0-1Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a0-0Al Gharraf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Zawra'a 1535 · Al Gharraf 1459

	Al Zawra'a	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	60%	26%	13%
Market	62%	24%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Zawra'a (rating 1535 vs 1459).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Zawra'a	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.6 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:40 +9’	1.45	3.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Zawra'a 1–1–0 Al Gharraf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Zawra'a
05/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Gharraf

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
3	Erbil SC	7	4	2	1	9	3	14
4	Al Naft SC	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
5	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
6	Newroz SC	7	3	2	2	10	5	11
7	Al Talaba	7	2	3	2	8	9	9
8	Al Jolan SC	7	2	3	2	6	7	9
9	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
10	Duhok	7	1	5	1	10	10	8
11	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Mosul FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
13	Al Minaa	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Naft Maysan	7	1	4	2	4	8	7
18	Karbalaa FC	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
19	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
20	Al Karkh	7	1	1	5	7	12	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Zawra'a	Al Gharraf
Al Kahrabaa	1-0 W	0-0 D
Naft Maysan	4-0 W	0-2 L
Al Minaa	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Zawra'a (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Zawra'a

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
07/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/06	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	17	3	L
27/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L

Al Gharraf

DWLDWLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	7	1	L
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/06	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
27/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
19/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Zawra'a vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Zawra'a win (61%). Probabilities: Al Zawra'a 61%, draw 25%, Al Gharraf 14%.

How many goals are expected in Al Zawra'a vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Al Zawra'a 1.62 · Al Gharraf 0.63), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Zawra'a vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.