Football · Iraq Stars League · 14/09, 20:00

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Al Karma

Team pages: Erbil SC · Al Karma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Erbil SC1.21

Al Karma1.11

1X2

37% 30% 32%

Erbil SC Draw Al Karma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWDW

Al Karma 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Erbil SC 2–1–1 Al Karma (4 last)

Al Karma2-3Erbil SC
Erbil SC2-1Al Karma
Al Karma1-0Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-1Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1592 · Al Karma 1557

	Erbil SC	Draw	Al Karma
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Erbil SC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Al Karma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.4	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +21’	2.40	3.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erbil SC 2–1–1 Al Karma

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	2-3 HT 1-1	Erbil SC
03/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-1 HT 2-1	Al Karma
23/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
10/01/25 Iraq League	Erbil SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
2	Al Karma	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Erbil SC	6	4	2	0	8	1	14
4	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
5	Al Naft SC	6	2	3	1	6	4	9
6	Al Talaba	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
7	Al Jolan SC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
8	Newroz SC	6	2	2	2	8	5	8
9	Duhok	6	1	5	0	8	7	8
10	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
11	Mosul FC	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Al Minaa	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
15	Zakho	6	1	3	2	5	9	6
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
18	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
19	Naft Maysan	6	0	4	2	2	8	4
20	Al Karkh	6	0	1	5	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Al Karma
Diyala FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	3-0 W
Al Kahrabaa	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

LWWWWDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
16/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Al Karma

WDDWDWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Al Karma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (37%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 37%, draw 30%, Al Karma 32%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Al Karma?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Erbil SC 1.21 · Al Karma 1.11), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Al Karma?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.