Football · Iraq Stars League · 18/09, 17:45

Prediction: Mosul FC vs Al Naft SC

Team pages: Mosul FC · Al Naft SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Mosul FC1.17

Al Naft SC1.1

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Mosul FC Draw Al Naft SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosul FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWLDLL

Al Naft SC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Mosul FC 1–1–0 Al Naft SC (2 last)

Mosul FC0-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-2Mosul FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosul FC 1483 · Al Naft SC 1529

	Mosul FC	Draw	Al Naft SC
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Naft SC (rating 1483 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosul FC	Al Naft SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:18 +33’	2.45	3.00	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosul FC 1–1–0 Al Naft SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
21/11/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Mosul FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
3	Erbil SC	7	4	2	1	9	3	14
4	Al Naft SC	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
5	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
6	Newroz SC	7	3	2	2	10	5	11
7	Al Talaba	7	2	3	2	8	9	9
8	Al Jolan SC	7	2	3	2	6	7	9
9	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
10	Duhok	7	1	5	1	10	10	8
11	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Mosul FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
13	Al Minaa	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Naft Maysan	7	1	4	2	4	8	7
18	Karbalaa FC	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
19	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
20	Al Karkh	7	1	1	5	7	12	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosul FC	Al Naft SC
Newroz SC	0-3 L	2-1 W
Al Zawra'a	2-2 D	1-0 W
Karbalaa FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Al Karma	1-1 D	0-3 L
Al Minaa	0-1 L	3-0 W
Duhok	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Naft SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosul FC

DLDDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
15/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-3	2	4	D

Al Naft SC

DDWWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
27/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
19/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosul FC vs Al Naft SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mosul FC win (36%). Probabilities: Mosul FC 36%, draw 31%, Al Naft SC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Mosul FC vs Al Naft SC?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Mosul FC 1.17 · Al Naft SC 1.1), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosul FC vs Al Naft SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.