Football · Iraq Stars League · 09/09, 17:45

Prediction: Al Talaba vs Al Karkh

Team pages: Al Talaba · Al Karkh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Al Talaba1.46

Al Karkh0.93

1X2

48% 30% 22%

Al Talaba Draw Al Karkh

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Talaba 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDWDD

Al Karkh 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Al Talaba 4–2–0 Al Karkh (6 last)

Al Talaba1-1Al Karkh
Al Karkh0-2Al Talaba
Al Karkh1-4Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-0Al Karkh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Talaba 1503 · Al Karkh 1472

	Al Talaba	Draw	Al Karkh
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Talaba: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Talaba	Al Karkh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	0.9 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X2.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +1’	1.90	2.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Talaba 4–2–0 Al Karkh

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
13/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Talaba
02/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-4 HT 1-2	Al Talaba
05/12/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karkh
02/04/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
28/10/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Karkh

Standings · Iraq Stars League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	6	3	3	0	12	3	12
2	Erbil SC	5	3	2	0	6	1	11
3	Al Karma	5	3	2	0	8	4	11
4	Al Naft SC	5	2	3	0	6	1	9
5	Newroz SC	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
6	Mosul FC	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
7	Al Shorta SC	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
8	Al Jolan SC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
9	Duhok	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	6	1	4	1	10	10	7
11	Al Minaa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
12	Diyala FC	5	1	2	2	9	10	5
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
14	Al Gharraf	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
15	Zakho	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	Al Talaba	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
19	Naft Maysan	5	0	3	2	1	7	3
20	Al Karkh	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Talaba

DLDDDLDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
26/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
11/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	8	D

Al Karkh

WWDWLDLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
15/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
11/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
06/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-1	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Talaba vs Al Karkh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Talaba win (48%). Probabilities: Al Talaba 48%, draw 30%, Al Karkh 22%.

How many goals are expected in Al Talaba vs Al Karkh?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Al Talaba 1.46 · Al Karkh 0.93), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Talaba vs Al Karkh?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.