Football · Iraq Stars League · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Karma vs Zakho

Team pages: Al Karma · Zakho

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Al Karma1.52

Zakho0.98

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Al Karma Draw Zakho

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDWWWW

Zakho 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLDDW

Head-to-head

Al Karma 0–3–2 Zakho (5 last)

Zakho2-2Al Karma
Al Karma0-0Zakho
Al Karma0-0Zakho
Zakho2-0Al Karma
Zakho1-0Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1585 · Zakho 1481

	Al Karma	Draw	Zakho
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1585 vs 1481).
H2H favours Zakho: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Zakho
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.75 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.00 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:34 +30’	1.61	3.50	4.75
00:46 +7’	1.75▲	3.30▼	4.00▼
06:36 +7’	1.61▼	3.50▲	4.75▲
14:13 +12’	1.83▲	3.30▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +92’	1.82	3.23	3.75
12:11 +134’	1.77▼	3.23	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 0–3–2 Zakho

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	2-2 HT 0-1	Al Karma
27/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	0-0 HT 0-0	Zakho
02/07/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	0-0 HT 0-0	Zakho
27/02/25 Iraq Cup	Zakho	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
01/12/24 Iraq League	Zakho	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
2	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
3	Al Karma	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
4	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
5	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
6	Newroz SC	7	3	2	2	10	5	11
7	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
8	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
10	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
11	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
12	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
13	Mosul FC	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Zakho
Erbil SC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Diyala FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Mosul FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Al Talaba	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

DDWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Zakho

LDLWLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
25/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Zakho?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (49%). Probabilities: Al Karma 49%, draw 28%, Zakho 23%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Zakho?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Al Karma 1.52 · Zakho 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Zakho?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.