Football · Iraq Stars League · 19/09, 20:30

Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Al Kahrabaa

Team pages: Al Shorta SC · Al Kahrabaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Al Shorta SC1.48

Al Kahrabaa0.57

1X2

59% 26% 15%

Al Shorta SC Draw Al Kahrabaa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shorta SC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWDWD

Al Kahrabaa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDDDLW

Head-to-head

Al Shorta SC 5–1–0 Al Kahrabaa (6 last)

Al Shorta SC2-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa0-1Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC2-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa0-1Al Shorta SC
Al Kahrabaa2-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC2-1Al Kahrabaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1555 · Al Kahrabaa 1496

	Al Shorta SC	Draw	Al Kahrabaa
Our model	58%	28%	13%
Market	61%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Shorta SC (rating 1555 vs 1496).
H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shorta SC	Al Kahrabaa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.5	0.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.94
2	5.75 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.64 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +30’	1.48	3.75	5.75
02:58 +6’	1.33▼	4.33▲	7.50▲
14:25 +6’	1.48▲	3.90▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:30 +16’	1.44	3.94	5.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 5–1–0 Al Kahrabaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa
04/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Shorta SC
13/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa
21/12/24 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
08/05/24 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	2-2 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
24/02/24 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Al Kahrabaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
2	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
3	Al Karma	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
4	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
5	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
6	Newroz SC	7	3	2	2	10	5	11
7	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
8	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
10	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
11	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
12	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
13	Mosul FC	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shorta SC	Al Kahrabaa
Ghaz Al Shamal	0-0 D	1-1 D
Al Gharraf	2-1 W	0-0 D
Erbil SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Al Karma	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Minaa	0-0 D	2-1 W
Al Karkh	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Shorta SC

LWDDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
04/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/06	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
28/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
20/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

Al Kahrabaa

WDWLDDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (59%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 59%, draw 26%, Al Kahrabaa 15%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Al Shorta SC 1.48 · Al Kahrabaa 0.57), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.