Football · Iraq Stars League · 09/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zakho vs Newroz SC

Team pages: Zakho · Newroz SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Zakho1.16

Newroz SC0.97

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Zakho Draw Newroz SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zakho 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLDDWL

Newroz SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Zakho 2–1–1 Newroz SC (4 last)

Newroz SC2-1Zakho
Zakho4-0Newroz SC
Zakho1-0Newroz SC
Zakho1-1Newroz SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zakho 1475 · Newroz SC 1546

	Zakho	Draw	Newroz SC
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newroz SC (rating 1475 vs 1546).
H2H favours Zakho: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zakho	Newroz SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.6	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:48 +4’	2.20	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zakho 2–1–1 Newroz SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	2-1 HT 0-1	Zakho
04/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	4-0 HT 3-0	Newroz SC
08/07/25 Iraq Cup	Zakho	1-0 HT 0-0	Newroz SC
26/09/24 Iraq League	Zakho	1-1 HT 0-1	Newroz SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
3	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
4	Al Shorta SC	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
5	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	Newroz SC	8	3	3	2	10	5	12
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
8	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
9	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
10	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
11	Diyala FC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
13	Zakho	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
16	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
17	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zakho	Newroz SC
Mosul FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Al Jolan SC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Ghaz Al Shamal	1-0 W	0-0 D
Erbil SC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newroz SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zakho

DLWLDLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
13/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
25/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D

Newroz SC

WWDLLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
14/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
09/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
30/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
22/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zakho vs Newroz SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zakho win (40%). Probabilities: Zakho 40%, draw 30%, Newroz SC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Zakho vs Newroz SC?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Zakho 1.16 · Newroz SC 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zakho vs Newroz SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.