Football · Iraq Stars League · 18/10, 18:45

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Mosul FC

Team pages: Erbil SC · Mosul FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Erbil SC1.86

Mosul FC0.92

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Erbil SC Draw Mosul FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWLWD

Mosul FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Erbil SC 1–1–0 Mosul FC (2 last)

Erbil SC2-2Mosul FC
Mosul FC0-2Erbil SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1557 · Mosul FC 1439

	Erbil SC	Draw	Mosul FC
Our model	58%	24%	17%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1557 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Mosul FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.5	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.80
2	5.75 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.61 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:21 +3’	1.48	3.70	5.75
17:44 +9’	1.53▲	3.60▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:11 +60’	1.51	3.66	5.23
08:40 +31’	1.50▼	3.70▲	5.35▲
11:08 +15’	1.48▼	3.73▲	5.46▲
16:50 +50’	1.49▲	3.80▲	5.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Erbil SC 1–1–0 Mosul FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-2 HT 2-0	Mosul FC
08/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Erbil SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
4	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
5	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
14	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
19	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Mosul FC
Karbalaa FC	3-0 W	3-0 W
Al Karma	1-2 L	1-1 D
Diyala FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W

Mosul FC

DDWWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
18/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Mosul FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (58%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 58%, draw 25%, Mosul FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Mosul FC?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Erbil SC 1.86 · Mosul FC 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Mosul FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.