Football · Iraq Stars League · 17/10, 19:30

Prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma

Team pages: Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Al Karma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.09

Al Karma1.19

1X2

33% 30% 38%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Draw Al Karma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLWLDW

Al Karma 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–2 Al Karma (4 last)

Al Karma3-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Al Karma
Al Karma2-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1502 · Al Karma 1592

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Draw	Al Karma
Our model	32%	31%	37%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1502 vs 1592).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Karma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:13 +4’	2.70	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–0–2 Al Karma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	3-0 HT 3-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
15/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	2-1 HT 0-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
12/12/24 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	9	7	2	0	17	7	23
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Minaa	9	3	3	3	10	10	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
10	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
11	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
15	Al Kahrabaa	9	1	5	3	6	10	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	9	1	3	5	6	15	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Karma
Mosul FC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Diyala FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Karbalaa FC	3-2 W	2-0 W
Erbil SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

WWDDDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
19/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
10/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
07/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
03/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
29/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
25/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
21/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Al Karma

WDWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
19/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Karma win (38%). Probabilities: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 33%, draw 30%, Al Karma 38%.

How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.09 · Al Karma 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.