Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/10, 19:30

Prediction: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Talaba

Team pages: Al Kahrabaa · Al Talaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Al Kahrabaa1.01

Al Talaba1.14

1X2

31% 30% 38%

Al Kahrabaa Draw Al Talaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Kahrabaa 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDLWLD

Al Talaba 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDWLDD

Head-to-head

Al Kahrabaa 0–6 Al Talaba (6 last)

Al Kahrabaa1-2Al Talaba
Al Talaba2-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Talaba1-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa1-2Al Talaba
Al Kahrabaa0-3Al Talaba
Al Talaba2-0Al Kahrabaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Kahrabaa 1470 · Al Talaba 1503

	Al Kahrabaa	Draw	Al Talaba
Our model	30%	32%	37%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Talaba: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Kahrabaa	Al Talaba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:33 +33’	2.80	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Kahrabaa 0–0–6 Al Talaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-2 HT 0-1	Al Talaba
10/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa
17/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa
20/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-2 HT 1-0	Al Talaba
26/06/24 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	0-3 HT 0-2	Al Talaba
24/11/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	9	7	2	0	17	7	23
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Minaa	9	3	3	3	10	10	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
10	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
11	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
15	Al Kahrabaa	9	1	5	3	6	10	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	9	1	3	5	6	15	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Kahrabaa	Al Talaba
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Al Minaa	2-1 W	1-1 D
Al Karkh	2-2 D	3-2 W
Duhok	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Kahrabaa

WLDDDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
13/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W

Al Talaba

DDLDDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
18/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
09/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Talaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Talaba win (38%). Probabilities: Al Kahrabaa 31%, draw 30%, Al Talaba 38%.

How many goals are expected in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Talaba?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Al Kahrabaa 1.01 · Al Talaba 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Talaba?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.