Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/10, 17:00
Prediction: Newroz SC vs Al Minaa
Team pages: Newroz SC · Al Minaa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Newroz SC1.35
Al Minaa0.89
1X2
Newroz SC
Draw
Al Minaa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Newroz SC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Al Minaa
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newroz SC
4–1–0
Al Minaa
(5 last)
- Newroz SC4-1Al Minaa
- Al Minaa1-1Newroz SC
- Newroz SC1-0Al Minaa
- Al Minaa1-5Newroz SC
- Al Minaa1-4Newroz SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newroz SC 1562 · Al Minaa 1486
| Newroz SC | Draw | Al Minaa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newroz SC (rating 1562 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Newroz SC: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newroz SC | Al Minaa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.7 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newroz SC 4–1–0 Al Minaa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Iraq Stars League | Newroz SC | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Al Minaa |
| 01/01/26 Iraq Stars League | Al Minaa | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Newroz SC |
| 02/04/25 Iraq Stars League | Newroz SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Al Minaa |
| 04/02/25 Iraq Stars League | Al Minaa | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Newroz SC |
| 25/04/24 Iraq League | Al Minaa | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Newroz SC |
Standings · Iraq Stars League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karma | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Erbil SC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Al Naft SC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Al Shorta SC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Newroz SC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Duhok | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Minaa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Al Jolan SC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| 12 | Diyala FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
| 13 | Zakho | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al Kahrabaa | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Naft Maysan | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 17 | Mosul FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Karkh | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 | Al Gharraf | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| 20 | Karbalaa FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newroz SC | Al Minaa |
|---|---|---|
| Zakho | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Naft Maysan | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Duhok | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Al Gharraf | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Al Naft SC | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newroz SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Zakho Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/09 | Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/09 | Mosul FC Iraq Stars League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Duhok Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mosul FC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 20/05 | Zakho Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
Al Minaa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Duhok Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Erbil SC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 26/08 | Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | Zakho Iraq Stars League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 02/06 | Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newroz SC vs Al Minaa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newroz SC win (47%). Probabilities: Newroz SC 47%, draw 30%, Al Minaa 24%.
How many goals are expected in Newroz SC vs Al Minaa?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Newroz SC 1.35 · Al Minaa 0.89), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Newroz SC vs Al Minaa?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.