Football · Iraq Stars League · 18/10, 19:30

Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Al Karkh

Team pages: Al Shorta SC · Al Karkh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Al Shorta SC1.96

Al Karkh0.68

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Al Shorta SC Draw Al Karkh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shorta SC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWDWD

Al Karkh 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLWWL

Head-to-head

Al Shorta SC 6–0 Al Karkh (6 last)

Al Karkh0-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC3-0Al Karkh
Al Shorta SC1-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC2-1Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-4Al Shorta SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1587 · Al Karkh 1449

	Al Shorta SC	Draw	Al Karkh
Our model	67%	22%	11%
Market	67%	22%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Shorta SC (rating 1587 vs 1449).
H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shorta SC	Al Karkh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.1	1.2 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	3.70 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.47 ★
2	5.50 → 8.00▲	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +3’	1.50	3.70	5.50
08:00 +12’	1.33▼	4.00▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:44 +28’	1.31	4.38	7.44
17:33 +8’	1.32▲	4.47▲	7.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 6–0–0 Al Karkh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
20/11/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	3-0 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
08/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
11/12/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-2 HT 1-0	Al Shorta SC
21/05/24 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-1 HT 0-1	Al Karkh
08/03/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-4 HT 1-2	Al Shorta SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
4	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
5	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
14	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
19	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shorta SC	Al Karkh
Al Talaba	0-0 D	2-3 L
Al Kahrabaa	2-0 W	2-2 D
Erbil SC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Al Jolan SC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Al Karma	1-2 L	2-3 L
Karbalaa FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Shorta SC

DDLWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
12/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
04/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/06	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	12	4	D

Al Karkh

LDLLDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-3	5	2	L
17/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Al Karkh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (67%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 67%, draw 22%, Al Karkh 11%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Al Karkh?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Al Shorta SC 1.96 · Al Karkh 0.68), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Al Karkh?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.