Football · Iraq Stars League · 09/09, 21:00

Prediction: Al Karma vs Al Naft SC

Team pages: Al Karma · Al Naft SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Al Karma1.34

Al Naft SC0.64

1X2

53% 29% 17%

Al Karma Draw Al Naft SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDDWDWDWW

Al Naft SC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWDDDW

Head-to-head

Al Karma 1–2–1 Al Naft SC (4 last)

Al Naft SC0-0Al Karma
Al Karma2-1Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC0-0Al Karma
Al Karma0-2Al Naft SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1567 · Al Naft SC 1525

	Al Karma	Draw	Al Naft SC
Our model	53%	31%	17%
Market	54%	28%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1567 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Al Naft SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +10’	1.67	3.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 1–2–1 Al Naft SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
20/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	2-1 HT 0-1	Al Naft SC
02/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
26/09/24 Iraq League	Al Karma	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Naft SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	6	3	3	0	12	3	12
2	Erbil SC	5	3	2	0	6	1	11
3	Al Karma	5	3	2	0	8	4	11
4	Al Naft SC	5	2	3	0	6	1	9
5	Newroz SC	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
6	Mosul FC	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
7	Al Shorta SC	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
8	Al Jolan SC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
9	Duhok	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	6	1	4	1	10	10	7
11	Al Minaa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
12	Diyala FC	5	1	2	2	9	10	5
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
14	Al Gharraf	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
15	Zakho	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	Al Talaba	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
19	Naft Maysan	5	0	3	2	1	7	3
20	Al Karkh	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Al Naft SC
Al Talaba	1-1 D	0-0 D
Naft Maysan	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

DWDDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	3	9	W
05/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Al Naft SC

DLDDWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
27/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
19/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
05/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Al Naft SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (53%). Probabilities: Al Karma 53%, draw 29%, Al Naft SC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Al Naft SC?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Al Karma 1.34 · Al Naft SC 0.64), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Al Naft SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.