Football · Iraq Stars League · 12/09, 17:30

Prediction: Al Gharraf vs Diyala FC

Team pages: Al Gharraf · Diyala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Al Gharraf1.27

Diyala FC1.05

1X2

40% 31% 29%

Al Gharraf Draw Diyala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Gharraf 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWLLDL

Diyala FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDDLL

Head-to-head

Al Gharraf 0–2–0 Diyala FC (2 last)

Al Gharraf0-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-1Al Gharraf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Gharraf 1470 · Diyala FC 1446

	Al Gharraf	Draw	Diyala FC
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Gharraf	Diyala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	2.80 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.97
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:32 +3’	2.30	2.80	3.10
16:30 +21’	2.25▼	2.90▲	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +4’	2.33	2.94	2.82
15:30 +80’	2.35▲	2.97▲	2.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Gharraf 0–2–0 Diyala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	0-0 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
22/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Gharraf

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	13	3	15
2	Al Karma	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Erbil SC	6	4	2	0	8	1	14
4	Al Shorta SC	7	3	3	1	7	4	12
5	Al Naft SC	6	2	3	1	6	4	9
6	Al Jolan SC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
7	Al Talaba	7	2	3	2	8	9	9
8	Zakho	7	2	3	2	7	10	9
9	Newroz SC	6	2	2	2	8	5	8
10	Duhok	7	1	5	1	10	10	8
11	Diyala FC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Mosul FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
13	Al Minaa	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	10	11	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
17	Naft Maysan	7	1	4	2	4	8	7
18	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
19	Al Gharraf	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
20	Al Karkh	7	1	1	5	7	12	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Gharraf	Diyala FC
Al Shorta SC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Duhok	1-1 D	1-0 W
Amanat Baghdad	3-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Gharraf (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Gharraf

DDWLDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/06	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
27/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
19/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	8	D

Diyala FC

LLLWWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Gharraf vs Diyala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Gharraf win (40%). Probabilities: Al Gharraf 40%, draw 31%, Diyala FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Al Gharraf vs Diyala FC?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Al Gharraf 1.27 · Diyala FC 1.05), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Gharraf vs Diyala FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.