Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/10, 17:00

Prediction: Duhok vs Al Zawra'a

Team pages: Duhok · Al Zawra'a

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Duhok1.01

Al Zawra'a1.31

1X2

28% 30% 43%

Duhok Draw Al Zawra'a

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Duhok 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDWDLD

Al Zawra'a 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Duhok 1–3–2 Al Zawra'a (6 last)

Al Zawra'a2-2Duhok
Duhok0-0Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a1-2Duhok
Duhok0-1Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a3-0Duhok
Al Zawra'a1-1Duhok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Duhok 1480 · Al Zawra'a 1540

	Duhok	Draw	Al Zawra'a
Our model	27%	30%	42%
Market	28%	29%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Zawra'a (rating 1480 vs 1540).
H2H favours Al Zawra'a: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Duhok	Al Zawra'a
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:56 +3’	3.20	3.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Duhok 1–3–2 Al Zawra'a

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	2-2 HT 1-1	Duhok
28/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Zawra'a
03/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-2 HT 0-1	Duhok
20/09/24 Iraq League	Duhok	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Zawra'a
08/12/23 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	3-0 HT 1-0	Duhok
20/07/23 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	1-1 HT 0-1	Duhok

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
3	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
4	Al Shorta SC	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
5	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	Newroz SC	8	3	3	2	10	5	12
7	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
8	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
10	Diyala FC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
11	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Zakho	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	11	12	8
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Mosul FC	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
16	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
17	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Duhok	Al Zawra'a
Al Minaa	1-1 D	0-0 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 W	1-0 W
Al Naft SC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Al Gharraf	1-1 D	2-0 W
Al Kahrabaa	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Zawra'a (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Duhok

LLDDDDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
08/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
30/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
01/06	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
27/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Al Zawra'a

LLDDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
07/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/06	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	17	3	L
27/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Duhok vs Al Zawra'a?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Zawra'a win (43%). Probabilities: Duhok 28%, draw 30%, Al Zawra'a 43%.

How many goals are expected in Duhok vs Al Zawra'a?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Duhok 1.01 · Al Zawra'a 1.31), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Duhok vs Al Zawra'a?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.