Football · Iraq Stars League · 10/10, 19:30

Prediction: Al Karma vs Al Karkh

Team pages: Al Karma · Al Karkh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Al Karma1.8

Al Karkh0.71

1X2

63% 24% 14%

Al Karma Draw Al Karkh

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWWWW

Al Karkh 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLWW

Head-to-head

Al Karma 1–2–1 Al Karkh (4 last)

Al Karkh0-0Al Karma
Al Karma1-1Al Karkh
Al Karkh0-1Al Karma
Al Karma0-1Al Karkh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1586 · Al Karkh 1480

	Al Karma	Draw	Al Karkh
Our model	62%	24%	13%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1586 vs 1480).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Al Karkh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X3.80

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.28 ★
2	5.75 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.32

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +5’	1.44	4.00	5.75
09:05 +10’	1.30▼	4.33▲	8.50▲
05:55 +11’	1.42▲	3.80▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:44 +15’	1.32	4.28	7.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 1–2–1 Al Karkh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
31/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
19/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Karma
23/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Karkh

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
9	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
10	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
11	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
16	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
17	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Al Karkh
Erbil SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Karbalaa FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Al Kahrabaa	1-1 D	2-2 D
Al Shorta SC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Al Talaba	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

DWDWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D

Al Karkh

WLDLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Al Karkh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (63%). Probabilities: Al Karma 63%, draw 24%, Al Karkh 14%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Al Karkh?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Al Karma 1.8 · Al Karkh 0.71), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Al Karkh?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.