Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/10, 17:00

Prediction: Karbalaa FC vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Karbalaa FC · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Karbalaa FC0.95

Al Gharraf1.06

1X2

31% 31% 37%

Karbalaa FC Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Karbalaa FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWLLLD

Al Gharraf 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDLLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karbalaa FC 1466 · Al Gharraf 1429

	Karbalaa FC	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	30%	33%	36%
Market	32%	30%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karbalaa FC	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:56 +9’	2.80	3.00	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	9	7	2	0	17	7	23
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Minaa	9	3	3	3	10	10	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
10	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
11	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	1	5	3	4	7	8
15	Al Kahrabaa	9	1	5	3	6	10	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
17	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
18	Al Karkh	9	2	1	6	12	17	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	9	1	3	5	6	15	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karbalaa FC	Al Gharraf
Al Kahrabaa	0-0 D	0-0 D
Al Zawra'a	1-1 D	0-2 L
Al Shorta SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Karbalaa FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karbalaa FC

WDDLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
21/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
16/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/12	Naft Al-Wasat Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Al Gharraf

LDWLLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
17/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	4	0	L
12/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	7	1	L
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/06	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karbalaa FC vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Gharraf win (37%). Probabilities: Karbalaa FC 31%, draw 31%, Al Gharraf 37%.

How many goals are expected in Karbalaa FC vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Karbalaa FC 0.95 · Al Gharraf 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Karbalaa FC vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.