Football · Iraq Stars League · 22/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Team pages: Al Talaba · Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Al Talaba1.12

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.12

1X2

35% 31% 35%

Al Talaba Draw Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Talaba 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWLDDW

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWLDWD

Head-to-head

Al Talaba 0–3–3 Al Quwa Al Jawiya (6 last)

Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Talaba1-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-1Al Talaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Talaba 1491 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1506

	Al Talaba	Draw	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Talaba	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.6	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +9’	2.55	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Talaba 0–3–3 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 HT 1-0	Al Talaba
20/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-2 HT 0-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
15/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
10/01/25 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Talaba
05/04/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
24/12/23 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 HT 1-1	Al Talaba

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Talaba	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Naft Maysan	0-2 L	1-1 D
Duhok	3-3 D	1-2 L
Diyala FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Quwa Al Jawiya (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Talaba

LDWDDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
18/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
09/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
26/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

WDDDLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
07/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
19/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
10/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
07/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
03/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
29/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
25/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
21/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Talaba win (35%). Probabilities: Al Talaba 35%, draw 31%, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 35%.

How many goals are expected in Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Al Talaba 1.12 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Talaba vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.