Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/10, 19:30

Prediction: Naft Maysan vs Erbil SC

Team pages: Naft Maysan · Erbil SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Naft Maysan0.75

Erbil SC1.24

1X2

23% 30% 48%

Naft Maysan Draw Erbil SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Naft Maysan 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLDLDWL

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Naft Maysan 0–2–3 Erbil SC (5 last)

Naft Maysan0-0Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-0Naft Maysan
Erbil SC3-2Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-1Erbil SC
Erbil SC2-0Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naft Maysan 1467 · Erbil SC 1578

	Naft Maysan	Draw	Erbil SC
Our model	21%	32%	47%
Market	24%	28%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1467 vs 1578).
H2H favours Erbil SC: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naft Maysan	Erbil SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.25

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +10’	3.80	3.25	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naft Maysan 0–2–3 Erbil SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	0-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
31/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
07/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	3-2 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan
30/11/24 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	1-1 HT 0-1	Erbil SC
19/06/24 Iraq League	Erbil SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
3	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
4	Al Shorta SC	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
5	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	Newroz SC	8	3	3	2	10	5	12
7	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
8	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
10	Diyala FC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
11	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Zakho	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	11	12	8
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Mosul FC	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
16	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
17	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naft Maysan	Erbil SC
Al Karkh	2-3 L	1-0 W
Al Minaa	1-1 D	2-0 W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naft Maysan

LWDDLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-3	2-3	8	2	L
13/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
04/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Erbil SC

WWWDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naft Maysan vs Erbil SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Erbil SC win (48%). Probabilities: Naft Maysan 23%, draw 30%, Erbil SC 48%.

How many goals are expected in Naft Maysan vs Erbil SC?

The model expects 2 goals (Naft Maysan 0.75 · Erbil SC 1.24), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naft Maysan vs Erbil SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.