Football · Iraq Stars League · 09/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Naft SC vs Diyala FC

Team pages: Al Naft SC · Diyala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Al Naft SC1.34

Diyala FC0.87

1X2

47% 30% 24%

Al Naft SC Draw Diyala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Naft SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDWLWW

Diyala FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDDLLWD

Head-to-head

Al Naft SC 2–1–1 Diyala FC (4 last)

Diyala FC1-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC2-1Diyala FC
Al Naft SC2-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC0-0Al Naft SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Naft SC 1551 · Diyala FC 1494

	Al Naft SC	Draw	Diyala FC
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Naft SC (rating 1551 vs 1494).
H2H favours Al Naft SC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Naft SC	Diyala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:48 +8’	1.91	3.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Naft SC 2–1–1 Diyala FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Naft SC
09/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Diyala FC
10/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
01/12/24 Iraq League	Diyala FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
3	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
4	Al Shorta SC	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
5	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	Newroz SC	8	3	3	2	10	5	12
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
8	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
9	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
10	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
11	Diyala FC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
13	Zakho	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
16	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
17	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Naft SC	Diyala FC
Mosul FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Al Karma	0-3 L	1-2 L
Al Talaba	0-0 D	2-1 W
Duhok	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Diyala FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Naft SC

DWWDDDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
27/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
19/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D

Diyala FC

LWWLDDLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
08/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Naft SC vs Diyala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Naft SC win (47%). Probabilities: Al Naft SC 47%, draw 30%, Diyala FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Al Naft SC vs Diyala FC?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Al Naft SC 1.34 · Diyala FC 0.87), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Naft SC vs Diyala FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.