Football · Iraq Stars League · 10/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Kahrabaa vs Karbalaa FC

Team pages: Al Kahrabaa · Karbalaa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Al Kahrabaa1.42

Karbalaa FC0.87

1X2

50% 28% 23%

Al Kahrabaa Draw Karbalaa FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Kahrabaa 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDDLWL

Karbalaa FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Al Kahrabaa 0–3–2 Karbalaa FC (5 last)

Al Kahrabaa1-1Karbalaa FC
Karbalaa FC0-0Al Kahrabaa
Karbalaa FC0-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa0-1Karbalaa FC
Al Kahrabaa0-1Karbalaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Kahrabaa 1488 · Karbalaa FC 1481

	Al Kahrabaa	Draw	Karbalaa FC
Our model	49%	30%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Karbalaa FC: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Kahrabaa	Karbalaa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.2	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.04 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:52 +12’	1.73	3.40	4.20
10:54 +6’	1.80▲	3.40	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:13 +46’	1.77	3.19	4.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Kahrabaa 0–3–2 Karbalaa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-1 HT 0-1	Karbalaa FC
06/12/24 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa
30/04/24 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa
27/02/24 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	0-1 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC
29/05/23 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	0-1 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
3	Erbil SC	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
4	Al Naft SC	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
5	Al Shorta SC	9	4	4	1	9	4	16
6	Newroz SC	9	4	3	2	11	5	15
7	Duhok	9	2	6	1	14	11	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	2	5	2	14	12	11
9	Al Talaba	9	2	5	2	10	11	11
10	Al Jolan SC	9	2	5	2	8	9	11
11	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Diyala FC	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
13	Zakho	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
16	Mosul FC	9	2	2	5	9	15	8
17	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
19	Al Gharraf	9	1	3	5	4	12	6
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Kahrabaa	Karbalaa FC
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Al Zawra'a	0-1 L	1-1 D
Al Karkh	2-2 D	1-0 W
Al Karma	1-1 D	0-2 L
Erbil SC	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Karbalaa FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Kahrabaa

DWLDDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
13/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D

Karbalaa FC

WWDDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
21/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
16/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/12	Naft Al-Wasat Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
05/12	Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Kahrabaa vs Karbalaa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Kahrabaa win (50%). Probabilities: Al Kahrabaa 50%, draw 28%, Karbalaa FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Al Kahrabaa vs Karbalaa FC?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Al Kahrabaa 1.42 · Karbalaa FC 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Kahrabaa vs Karbalaa FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.